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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still