From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”