Daily Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average number of everyday homicides monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent administrative data. But, security specialists have warned that murder figures may not point to improved national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main pillars of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security experts warned that using murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for gauging the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to accurately identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.