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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."